Calendar Year Performance 2014Calendar Year Performance 2015Calendar Year Performance 2016Calendar Year Performance 2017Calendar Year Performance 2018Calendar Year Performance 2019Calendar Year Performance 2020Calendar Year Performance 2021Calendar Year Performance 2022Calendar Year Performance 2023
-
- 0.3 %
+ 1.9 %
-
- 3.1 %
+ 3.6 %
+ 2.2 %
+ 0.1 %
- 4.5 %
+ 4.0 %
Net Asset Value
105.4 €
Asset Under Management
1 306 M €
Market
European market
SFDR - Fund Classification
Article
8
Data as of: 30 Apr 2024.
Data as of: 7 May 2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
Central bank meetings held no big surprises in March, although the Bank of Japan did bring an end to its negative interest rate policy by raising its key rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%–0.1%. However, the prospect of coordinated easing by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve seems to be receding as US growth and inflation figures remain higher than expected. Despite a dovish tone, the Federal Reserve has been forced to revise its growth forecasts upwards for the cycle ahead. The consumer price index beat traders’ forecasts once again at +3.2% y/y, after another disappointing publication the previous month, while core inflation remains well above target at 3.8%. Other indicators were just as robust, and include retail sales and industrial production, which rebounded in February. Job growth of 275,000 over the month was also surprisingly high. The trend in Europe is more subtle as countries show a little more fiscal orthodoxy to meet EU deficit requirements. However, the publication of leading indicators (PMIs) was encouraging with an improvement in services activity, which is now settled in expansionary territory, and signs that consumer confidence is returning. The ECB put out a reassuring message, lowering its inflation forecasts even though services inflation is stuck at 4% and commodity price pressures seem to be mounting after easing considerably in 2023.
Performance commentary
As core yields eased a little and credit markets moved upwards, our emphasis on buy-and-hold strategies, especially for credit, helped the Fund deliver a positive return and fare much better than its reference indicator. Our allocation to corporate and financial bonds, and to a lesser extent peripheral sovereign debt, raised monthly performance. The portfolio’s selection of collateralised loan obligations and exposure to money market instruments continues to have a positive impact.
Outlook strategy
In this scenario of a soft landing for the European economy, mainly thanks to an improvement in real income and to inflation gradually moving back towards the central bank’s target, paving the way for an initial rate cut in June, the portfolio’s modified duration remains moderate at around 2, mainly involving inflation and curve steepening strategies, and a significant credit allocation. We still view credit, which accounts for nearly two thirds of our portfolio, as an attractive performance driver from a buy-and-hold perspective, and are keeping some tactical hedging given the valuation levels now reached. Our exposure is concentrated on short-dated investment grade issues, with financials, energy and CLOs our three strongest convictions. We gradually built up our curve steepening strategy over the month (long 5-year vs short 30-year in Germany) as the ECB is getting closer to a first rate cut, which should re-steepen yield curves that are looking flat from a historical perspective. We are keeping exposure to real yields and breakeven inflation rates, as this could benefit from any disruption to the disinflation trend at a time of political and geopolitical uncertainty. The portfolio’s average yield was around 4.7% at month-end, at the top of its 10-year range, and this should drive performance over the year ahead.
Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.
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Market environment
Central bank meetings held no big surprises in March, although the Bank of Japan did bring an end to its negative interest rate policy by raising its key rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%–0.1%. However, the prospect of coordinated easing by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve seems to be receding as US growth and inflation figures remain higher than expected. Despite a dovish tone, the Federal Reserve has been forced to revise its growth forecasts upwards for the cycle ahead. The consumer price index beat traders’ forecasts once again at +3.2% y/y, after another disappointing publication the previous month, while core inflation remains well above target at 3.8%. Other indicators were just as robust, and include retail sales and industrial production, which rebounded in February. Job growth of 275,000 over the month was also surprisingly high. The trend in Europe is more subtle as countries show a little more fiscal orthodoxy to meet EU deficit requirements. However, the publication of leading indicators (PMIs) was encouraging with an improvement in services activity, which is now settled in expansionary territory, and signs that consumer confidence is returning. The ECB put out a reassuring message, lowering its inflation forecasts even though services inflation is stuck at 4% and commodity price pressures seem to be mounting after easing considerably in 2023.