Calendar Year Performance 2014Calendar Year Performance 2015Calendar Year Performance 2016Calendar Year Performance 2017Calendar Year Performance 2018Calendar Year Performance 2019Calendar Year Performance 2020Calendar Year Performance 2021Calendar Year Performance 2022Calendar Year Performance 2023
+ 2.0 %
- 0.7 %
+ 0.1 %
+ 1.7 %
- 3.4 %
+ 5.0 %
+ 9.2 %
-
- 8.0 %
+ 4.7 %
Net Asset Value
1286.8 €
Asset Under Management
1 328 M €
Market
Global market
SFDR - Fund Classification
Article
8
Data as of: 30 Apr 2024.
Data as of: 7 May 2024.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor). The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations, for the shares which are not currency-hedged.
Central bank meetings held no big surprises in March, although the Bank of Japan did bring an end to its negative interest rate policy by raising its key rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%–0.1%. However, the prospect of coordinated easing by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve seems to be receding as US growth and inflation figures remain higher than expected. Despite a dovish tone, the Federal Reserve has been forced to revise its growth forecasts upwards for the cycle ahead. The consumer price index beat traders’ forecasts once again at +3.2% y/y, after another disappointing publication the previous month, while core inflation remains well above target at 3.8%. Other indicators were just as robust, and include retail sales and industrial production, which rebounded in February. Job growth of 275,000 over the month was also surprisingly high. The trend in Europe is more subtle as countries show a little more fiscal orthodoxy to meet EU deficit requirements. However, the publication of leading indicators (PMIs) was encouraging with an improvement in services activity, which is now settled in expansionary territory, and signs that consumer confidence is returning. The ECB put out a reassuring message, lowering its inflation forecasts even though services inflation is stuck at 4% and commodity price pressures seem to be mounting after easing considerably in 2023.
Performance commentary
Our Fund delivered a very good performance over March, in line with the reference indicator. This came with low volatility thanks to resilient performance drivers and low modified duration. Our buy-and-hold strategies keep adding to the portfolio’s returns, while our inflation-linked instruments are benefitting from the global economy’s more upward trajectory and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation. We stuck to our investment philosophy in March, continuing to hedge the credit portfolio with cheap protection and lowering our modified duration. By month-end, our high yield credit index hedging had increased from 18% to 23%, while the Fund’s duration dropped from 2.2 to 1.4 after we sold Japanese 10-year bonds ahead of the BoJ meeting, and reduced exposure to the euro yield curve. We further increased our exposure to European breakeven inflation.
Outlook strategy
The main developed economies’ robustness is paradoxically good but also slightly worrying news for the markets, as it results solely from countries’ new budget deficit paradigm. The increase in borrowing has created imbalances that are starting to weigh on bonds, as fiscal policy contradicts the monetary policy goals of the main central banks. This no-landing scenario for the economy also rules out any prospect of inflation returning to target, as economic data continues to amaze investors. On top of this, commodity prices – which had been the main factors behind disinflation – have surged, and will probably now weigh on producer and consumer price indices. This economic outlook suggests we should be keeping the portfolio’s modified duration low, with a preference for the short end of yield curves. We are remaining short on the long end, for which abundant supply is likely to meet lower demand at a time when central banks are reducing the size of their balance sheets. We are also short on Japanese government bonds after the BoJ began a rate-hiking cycle in March. On credit markets, we are keeping high gross exposure to sub-segments that offer good carry, such as subordinated financial debt and structured credit, while consolidating our net exposure through cheap hedging to cushion any exogenous shocks. The weighting of our inflation-linked strategies is still high, as these should benefit from raised inflation expectations and provide good cover from any increase in geopolitical risk.
Reference to certain securities and financial instruments is for illustrative purposes to highlight stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. This is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments, nor does it constitute investment advice. The Management Company is not subject to prohibition on trading in these instruments prior to issuing any communication. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice.
The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCIS or the manager.
The information presented above is not contractually binding and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding possible entrance fees charged by the distributor), where applicable. Investors may lose some or all of their capital, as the capital in the UCI is not guaranteed. Access to the products and services presented herein may be restricted for some individuals or countries. Taxation depends on the situation of the individual. The risks, fees and recommended investment period for the UCI presented are detailed in the KIDs (key information documents) and prospectuses available on this website. The KID must be made available to the subscriber prior to purchase.). The reference to a ranking or prize, is no guarantee of the future results of the UCITS or the manager.
Carmignac Portfolio is a sub-fund of Carmignac Portfolio SICAV, an investment company under Luxembourg law, conforming to the UCITS Directive.
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Market environment
Central bank meetings held no big surprises in March, although the Bank of Japan did bring an end to its negative interest rate policy by raising its key rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%–0.1%. However, the prospect of coordinated easing by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve seems to be receding as US growth and inflation figures remain higher than expected. Despite a dovish tone, the Federal Reserve has been forced to revise its growth forecasts upwards for the cycle ahead. The consumer price index beat traders’ forecasts once again at +3.2% y/y, after another disappointing publication the previous month, while core inflation remains well above target at 3.8%. Other indicators were just as robust, and include retail sales and industrial production, which rebounded in February. Job growth of 275,000 over the month was also surprisingly high. The trend in Europe is more subtle as countries show a little more fiscal orthodoxy to meet EU deficit requirements. However, the publication of leading indicators (PMIs) was encouraging with an improvement in services activity, which is now settled in expansionary territory, and signs that consumer confidence is returning. The ECB put out a reassuring message, lowering its inflation forecasts even though services inflation is stuck at 4% and commodity price pressures seem to be mounting after easing considerably in 2023.